Why is the Bega share price on the nose this week?


The Bega Cheese Ltd (ASX: BGA) share price is trading down again on Tuesday and is now 3.5% in the red at the time of writing.

Shares have taken a nosedive this week, in continuation of a downtrend started from 10 June. Since then, the Bega share price has sunk from $4.65 to $3.86 in early trade on Tuesday.

In wider market moves, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has started in the green today and now trades 1% higher at 6,502.

There’s been no market-sensitive news out of Bega’s camp lately.

However, the share did cop a downgrade from the analyst team at UBS last week. The broker reckons higher milk prices and other cost pressures are likely to pull Bega’s earnings lower in FY23.

“Input cost pressures mainly relate to increased milk supply costs, but also material increases in packaging, freight, labor and electricity,” the broker said.

It revised its FY23 earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) to $214 million, down from a previous $245 million.

The UBS team now values Bega at $4.75 per share.

Following the downgrade, those at Bell Potter also cut recommendations to a hold at a $4.20 price target.

Meanwhile, Macquarie followed suit and cut its price target by 12% to $4.75 per share as well.

Despite the shift in sentiment, support remains behind Bega, with several brokers still constructive on its outlook.

Out of all analysts covering the share, almost 64% rate Bega a hold right now, versus 27% saying it’s a buy, according to Bloomberg data.

The consensus price target is $4.86 per share, per this list.

This year to date, shares are down more than 30%, as seen on the chart below.

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