Why has the Sayona Mining share price rocketed almost 100% in a month?


The Sayona Mining Ltd (ASX: SYA) share price has been running hot recently after a major company announcement last week.

Shares in Sayona Mining are trading up 8.3% at 29 cents apiece at the time of writing – a surge of 96.6% in this month alone. 

The lithium company’s share performance far exceeds that of the S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index (ASX: XMJ), which is up 4.07% for the same period.

Let’s look into why investors are bullish on this stock.

What happened last week?

The Sayona Mining share price is riding high after the company announced on Thursday it was restarting its North American Lithium (NAL) operation. Production of its first spodumene concentrate is due to begin in the first quarter of 2023. 

Investors are likely hoping this new development will put Sayona Mining on a course toward operational profitability. As my Fool colleague Zach Bristow pointed out, it’s only profitable when certain accounting measures are applied.

The predicted fall in the price of lithium carbonate and spodumene concentrate are headwinds for Sayona Mining’s sentiment, as well as its operational profitability when production gets off the ground.

As reported by my colleague James Mickleboro, Goldman Sachs expects the price of lithium carbonate to fall to US$11,500 past 2025, down from the average expected forecast of US$46,640 for this year.

Over the long run, the price of spodumene concentrate is expected to fall as much as US$800. This is down from an average forecast of US$3,679 for this year.

The Sayona Mining share price has been in overextended territory since Monday, so a downwards correction by bears towards its mean price of $0.158 may be on the cards.

The Sayona Mining share price is up 89.29% year to date. Shares in the company are significantly out-performing the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO), which has contracted 7.87% this year.

Sayona Mining’s market capitalisation is $2.3 billion, based on the current share price.

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