What’s the outlook for the Origin dividend in 2022?


Shares in Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG) are edging lower on Tuesday, trading at $6.755 apiece at the time of writing, a drop of 0.22%.

Origin shares are slightly underperforming the wider S&P/ASX 200 Energy Index (ASX: XEJ) which is up 0.23% this afternoon, after trading sideways for the past three months.

However, Origin investors have seen 29% gains for the year to date, as the energy supplier continues to see upside amid a sector-wide commodities boom.

Origin Energy’s dividend outlook

Analysts at JP Morgan are baking in a 40 cents per share dividend payment for Origin shareholders in their FY22 estimates.

That’s a 100% jump from FY21’s payout of 20 cents per share. From there, analysts forecast a slight dip to 32 cents per share in FY23 before spiking to 36 cents per share in FY24.

The broker makes its projections on net profit after tax (NPAT) estimates of $200 million, $982 million, and $1.132 billion for the corresponding years.

This should carry dividend yields of 5.8%, 4.7%, and 5.3% respectively at the current Origin Energy share price, JP Morgan says.

Meanwhile, the consensus of analyst estimates forecasts Origin to return 26.3 cents per share in 2022 and 30.6 cents per share the following year, according to Bloomberg data.

If that were to occur, shareholders would realise a 4.13% and 4.84% yield respectively, based on this data. Origin shares would also yield 4.38% in FY24 at the current share price.

Drawing inferences from JP Morgan estimates and the consensus of analyst forecasts on the Origin dividend, it appears shareholders are in for a period of income growth over the next few years, should all go according to plan.

Origin Energy share price snapshot

In the last 12 months, the Origin Energy share price has recorded a 66% gain after rising sharply in 2022. In the last month, however, Origin shares have crept less than 1% higher.

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