New coronavirus infections in South Australia have fallen to their lowest level so far in 2022 as new modelling suggests the continued easing of restrictions should not result in a second wave of Omicron cases.
SA reported 1147 COVID-19 cases on Monday, below the state’s seven-day average of 1372, along with five more deaths.
There are 224 people in hospital including 16 in intensive care where five people are on ventilators.
The state’s active infections have dropped to 14,635.
The fall in infections came after the release of new modelling which showed the easing of restrictions would result in a rise in cases, but that should not amount to a second wave.
Yet the modelling, prepared by the University of Adelaide and released by SA Health, said a “larger exponential increase” cannot be ruled out.
It forecast increases ranging from 10 to 13 per cent at each stage of lifting restrictions, including density limits.
The next changes are scheduled for February 15.
It also predicted a six per cent rise with the full return to school on February 14.
“Overall, it is estimated that this policy should not result in a second wave of cases,” said a briefing note presented with the modelling.
“In that case numbers should mostly continue to decrease, although at a much slower rate than if activity restrictions were to remain in place.”
Premier Steven Marshall said it had to be remembered that the modelling was just that.
But he said it had been “remarkably” accurate so far.