Domestic factors driving inflation, RBA boss warns



The Reserve Bank board is committed to doing what is necessary to ensure inflation returns to the 2-3 per cent target and households should be prepared for further interest rate rises, governor Philip Lowe warns.

He said while rising inflation had been driven by global events, increasingly domestic factors in Australia were coming into play.

“Following the strong recovery from the pandemic, growth in domestic spending is now testing the ability of the economy to meet the demand for goods and services,” Dr Lowe told a forum in Sydney on Tuesday.

“This is particularly evident in the labour market, with many firms reporting that the availability of labour is a significant constraint on their ability to operate and/or expand.”

Petrol prices have also risen further due to global developments and the outlooks for retail electricity and gas prices have been revised higher due to pressures on capacity in that sector.

The RBA raised its inflation forecast to a peak of about 7 per cent in the December quarter, having earlier predicted a top of 6 per cent.

“High inflation damages the economy, reduces the purchasing power of people’s incomes and devalues people’s savings,” Dr Lowe told the American Chamber of Commerce in Australia event.

“It is also regressive, hurting most those who are least well equipped to protect themselves.”

As such, it was important the RBA charted a way back to the 2-3 per cent inflation target, although Dr Lowe conceded this couldn’t be done immediately.

“Australians should be prepared for more interest rate increases,” Dr Lowe said.

“The level of interest rates is still very low for an economy with low unemployment and that is experiencing high inflation.”

The RBA board has raised the cash rate at its past two monthly meetings by a total of 75 basis points, the latter being a 50 basis point increase and the largest rise since February 2000.

“We decided to make a bigger, 50 basis points, adjustment on the basis of the additional information suggesting a further upward revision to an already high inflation forecast,” Dr Lowe said.

“The board also gave consideration to the fact that the level of interest rates was still very low.”

Economists are predicting another 50 basis point rise in July. That would take the cash rate to 1.35 per cent.

“I want to emphasise though that we are not on a pre-set path,” Dr Lowe said.

“How fast we increase interest rates, and how far we need to go, will be guided by the incoming data and the board’s assessment of the outlook for inflation and the labour market.”


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